A lot of people have asked me for my prediction of the box office gross of this movie, and now that we have a locked picture and I know what is going into theaters, I thought I would address this question.
I've thought about this a lot, and depending on what facts I want to assume, I could make a very good argument for it making anything from 20 million all the way up to 200 million. But here is the one fact I cannot assume away:
Right now, it is beyond anyone's ability to accurately predict the gross because of the numerous variables that have yet to be decided. Who we pick to distribute, what weekend we open, what's going on with the economy--there are too many factors to even list and any number I would guess would be just that: A complete guess.
I cannot predict what this movie will make--at least not right now--but I can tell you what I think about the movie:
Though this movie is extremely funny, it's more than that. Though the acting is amazingly good, it's more than that. Though the lighting and cinematography is beautiful, it's more than that.
I think we made something special.
Now, clearly I am the least objective person on earth to evaluate this project. Not only because it is about me and my life, but also because I know exactly where it went right and where it went wrong. I not only saw the sausage getting made, I was one of the ones making it. Artists don't write their own reviews for a reason, because they are simultaneously too easy and too hard on themselves.
When we finished the script, I knew that Nils and I had done a really good job. It was funny, original, and smart. Obviously a lot of people agreed with me, because we got it financed and into production in no time at all, with exactly the deal we wanted. Casting took a long time, but we ended up with great actors who were perfect for their roles. Early on in readings and rehearsals, I felt it in my bones that we had something; that impossible to quantify chemistry was there. During filming, I saw glimpses of magic and greatness.
Granted, after seeing the rough cut, a lot of my optimism was replaced with doubt. For a minute there, I thought we had missed the mark. But Nils and I got back at it, worked our asses off in the editing room and found the magic (it was there the whole time, we had shot it mostly right, but you just couldn't see it in the rough cut because it wasn't edited correctly). Now that we are done with all the hardest creative parts, I am feeling more confident about this than I ever did.
Granted, a big part of my optimism is just gut feeling. But, in addition to my intuition, there is evidence to support my conclusion. We've tested through the roof on the audience screenings so far (92% average in three screenings), and people whose opinions I trust have flipped shit over the movie. It's clear that at the very least, this is a good movie that will appeal to a lot of people.
Yet to me, it's not the overt evidence that confirms my gut feeling that this is special, it more the little things I am seeing. Some examples:
-Suki (the DP) took the movie to the colorist last week; he is the guy who makes sure all the colors are balanced correctly and look right in the final product. This guy has seen probably 10,000 movies in his life. He watches movies all day. It's literally his job. Well, he couldn't do his job on our movie. Why? He was laughing too hard. He was literally in such fits of laughter, he couldn't concentrate or focus, so he gave up trying to pay attention to his job and just watched it all the way through, as a fan.
-There was the 60 year old woman at the second LA screening, the crippled one with the cane who got in because she was the ride of someone else we invited. She could not be farther from our projected demographic...and she LOVED the movie. Raved about it.
-There is the constant, unending feedback like this--and this is written by a guy I only met last weekend:
"Before long it was 2200 and it was time for the screening. We can't tell you much about the movie other than this, it's hilarious. I was crying. It was legitimately funny and not like you'd expect it to be if you've followed or read what's on his website. I mean, yes, he has sex with a bunch of women, and yes, he's horrifically inappropriate in almost every frame, but it was, and I am going to go flog myself after saying this, a rather charming film, even in its absolute absurdity. Bottom line - 50 soldiers watched it and all 50 said it kicked ass. When the shit does that ever happen?"
-There is the fact that, after each of the three screenings we've had, dozens of people--most of whom don't know each other--have stood around afterward talking about the movie, quoting it back to each other and rehashing all their favorite parts. This has happened three times, with three very different groups, and each time it happened spontaneously. The first time I thought it was a fluke, but by the third time, I start to think it means something.
I know that the plural of anecdote is not data, but incidents like this speak to me. These things don't happen to normal movies, but they have happened to us so many times, I've stopped writing about them because it just sounds like boasting. Yet every day something like that happens. We are getting amazing reactions, not only from the expected sources, but often from places we never expected, and in ways that rarely if ever happen.
It's the combination of these numerous factors that is spawning my feeling that this movie has the potential to become something special. I can see it becoming the type of movie that is on everyone's DVD shelf, that is referenced thousands of times in hundreds of contexts, that becomes iconic. The way that Office Space and Swingers and Braveheart stand as reference points for all sorts of cultural discussions, I think this movie can do that.
Will this actually happen? And if it does, will this mean the movie does well at the box office?
Who knows. I don't. I hope I am right, but I could definitely end up being wrong. It would not be the first time. It's almost impossible to predict something like this beforehand. Only time will tell if my gut feeling turns out to be right, but as of now I truly believe we made not just a really good movie, but something special.
EDIT: As we figure many of these variables out, and we get closer to the release date, making a prediction about the gross will be much easier, and many blogs will start posting their predictions.
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